In Germany a penalty shootout is not a lottery

#THIS ARTICLE IN DUTCH is written by Bas Kammenga | translated by Liesbeth Wallien

‘Cracking the penalty code’ is the title of the fifth book on football by Gyuri Vergouw, and his first one in English. Writing under the more universal name of George, ‘Professor Penalty’ shares with the world his experiences with taking penalties, almost a quarter of a century after his first popular scientific book on the subject.

24 years ago Gyuri Vergouw published his first book on football, aptly titled ‘De Strafschop’ (The Penalty Kick). ‘That book created quite a stir, and I could live off the success for a long time. Meanwhile I have penned three books: on German football, on how to become world champion and on the national coach. I felt the time had come to reflect on that entire period when I focused on penalty kicks.’

Origin
Vergouw wanted to wrap up the subject of penalties. ‘I increasingly feel validated as far as the scientific part of my last book is concerned’, Vergouw explains. ‘This time I highlighted the personal aspects. Why does not everyone apply that knowledge? The epilogue begins with the line “Facts do not change people, but time does.” To me the book kicks off with the series of losses of the Dutch national team at the World Cup in France in 1998.’

But his interest goes back much further. ‘A missed penalty kick by Dick Helling in the early seventies of the previous century got me hooked and since then I have been keen on the subject. Since my book came out, I have learned that change is a slow process, especially in the Netherlands. In 2000 big data was like a curse word but these days my lectures are well attended by eager youngsters.’

Generation
New insights have been gained, too. ‘Like the question when a penalty shootout is a lottery. It only is if none of the national teams train for penalty shootouts. The team that trains for shootouts, is likely to win. If both national teams or both clubs train for shootouts, it comes close to professionalism, and traditional football is slowly become aware of that. As a result, penalty shootouts increasingly take longer because of fewer misses.’

Vergouw believes that a new generation of trainers will bring a change. ‘They stand for new training methods, and don’t follow the old school trainers who are often still using methods from their own experiences as players. Today’s football is much more open to scientific insights, and more willing to apply new developments.’

Odd one out
Meanwhile Vergouw has figured out why he is the one writing these books. ‘It has everything to do with me being the odd one out. I was not a sports reporter, and I was not associated with a club. In football, the group opinion usually rules, and it’s hard to go against that. Close-knit groups tend to get stuck in old ideas, milking past results and glory times. Albert Einstein once said: “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”.¹

To target the international market, Vergouw decided to publish in English this time. ‘For over twenty years I had to row against the current. At the time it was hard to find a publisher. Now I want to share this information with the entire world to explain why the Dutch and the English national teams are so bad at penalty shootouts, and why Germany, the Czech Republic and Argentina are so good. Germany never called a shootout a ‘lottery’ and they value their football professor.’ Vergouw refers to Dr Georg Froese, the sports scientist and psychologist who in 2013 was awarded the Science Prize from the German football federation for his thesis on penalty shootouts from Heidelberg University.

Averages
If the Netherlands had been as serious about penalty shootouts as Germany since the seventies, chances are both countries would have been in the finals of final tournaments equally often. ‘Football players can be trained for stressful situations. Cristiano Ronaldo is a typical example of a player who incorporates all tips and directions on taking penalties. He uses 89% of his tries.’

A great average. 85 to 90 percent of all penalties taken in top competitions are successful. That percentage is between 75 and 79 in shootouts. ‘Lionel Messi relies too much on his natural talents, he capitalizes on significantly fewer penalties than Ronaldo. The media should stop speaking of ‘a lottery’ for that matter. It adds to the hesitation players feel, while they themselves play a huge role in their chance of success, with preparation, training and regular patterns being major factors.’

Substitute
In 2000 Vergouw suggested to have Sander Westerveld substitute for Edwin van der Sar before a penalty shootout. ‘I got the idea from ice hockey when the Soviet Union’s reserve keeper substituted for the famous keeper Vladislav Tretjak in a major final play in the eighties. Studio Sport-commentator Frans Hendriks explained that this was the outcome of statistical research since 1964. With my first book I wanted to create awareness, and really get to the bottom. People called me crazy but to this day that book is my biggest hit.’

‘Early 2004 Hugo Borst confronted Edwin van der Sar on TV with my book De Strafschop. He referred to his poor score in stopping penalties, only one out of the over 30 taken. A keeper of his stature should have saved at least six or seven; later Cillesen has a similar problem. Van der Sar was not amused, to put it mildly. Later I heard through my network that a few weeks later a meeting was held near Breukelen, at which at any rate Van der Sar, Joop Hiele and Hans van Breukelen were present. They spoke about my book, initially without great enthusiasm, or so I heard. Not even a month later Van der Sar saved two penalty kicks for Fulham, and one in the shootout for the national team against Sweden in the European Championships It didn’t hurt that they were aware that the Swedish player favoured the right. Apparently it helps to prepare. Later Van der Sar saved an important penalty kick by Chelsea player Anelka, helping Manchester United win the Champion League in 2008. From penalty failure to penalty killer and hero, it’s easier than many players think.’

Women’s football
The book features insights from stressful situations for police officers, the military and pilots. ‘They use simulations to train for life-or-death situations. This enables them to better handle stress. Football players could use this to build their strength and inner calm. The ability of players to cope with stress could be measured with a simple questionnaire, to assess which players would perform best in penalty shootouts.’

The insights for women’s football are slightly different than for men. ‘Because on average female keepers are 27 centimetres shorter than their male counterparts, kicking in one of the corners of the goal is even more successful. In 2005 Vera Pauw, then national coach, got my book and she was seriously interested. In 2009 the Dutch national team defeated France in the European Championship in Finland, winning the penalty shootout. While in women’s football people are more receptive to insights, the older generation male trainers are usually very mistrustful.’

The top right and top left corners are still choices that pay off, like they did 25 years ago. ‘You can’t argue with the facts. In the corner and high, don’t kick too hard, with a five-metre run-up. Points for attention: the leg you stand on, the run-up and the direction of the ball. Even before the match have a list of players ready that can do the job. It helps if the player taking the penalty is level-headed. In 2000 we had data on many hundreds of shootouts, today on thousands. Statistically little has changed. Everything was and still is significant.’

For more information: Cracking the Penalty Code, Winning a Shootout in Football

Footnote:
1. Here you can read that it is doubtful whether Einstein actually said this.